History Literature

Tserents – Armenian Genocide Prediction (1879)

Tserents (Hovsep Shishmanyan), “The Ottoman Empire: The Western Armenians and Eastern Armenians,”
Pordz Journal, No 7-8, 1879 (Tpkhis) pp. 200-206.

It is no longer possible for a thinking person to remain indifferent and ignore the condition of the vast Ottoman Empire, and in particular, it is no longer possible for any Armenian not to turn his thoughts toward his people without considering its future. I said “any Armenian” since Armenians who were forced into exile and settle elsewhere – whether in the frosty north or the scorching south still care about their native homeland, and even those unschooled in geography inquire about their ancestral lands of Taron or Syunik.

Yes, it is true that statesmen, scholars, philosophers, historians, in the final analysis, the public-at- large, are rightfully concerned about the crisis of a vast empire: some out of anxiety about their own interests and risks, others out of intellectual curiosity or ethical concerns. However, the Armenians, whether in the diaspora or in their homeland, have yet more reason to reflect on their fate, tied as it is to conditions in that empire.

For two centuries, the civilized world has watched as dark storm clouds gather over Turkey, aware of the external and internal threats to this empire. However, the leaders of this vast empire remained oblivious to this danger. They failed to wake up from the deadening stupor of their dubious chauvinism, blinded as they were by glare of their former glory. Perhaps even more than their ignorance, their religious beliefs played role, based as it was on the delusion that God would never forsake them after having shown them so much favor in the past.

Moreover, while the Turks viewed the situation in this way and reckoned accordingly, the Armenians being likewise ill-informed, and just as convinced, perhaps with some justification, that there was no one better than the Ottoman emperor to protect their rights and life and so they prayed for his health and power.

However, when the imperial power began to falter along with the empire, when new states not only began to wake up, but also started respond to attacks with counter attacks, when uprisings by the people and their leaders came in rapid succession, when oppression and abuse in the impoverish country became the norm, and when the decrees of the head of the state were unheeded, becoming meaningless papers in the hands of the ministers, when they started being ignored by the local officials and ineffective, then the abuses of the marauding, nomadic hordes reached unbearable levels. Faced with this oppressive reality, some of the indigenous Armenian population, tormented, abused, and worn down by the attacks of brigands large and small, abandoned their century’s old religious faith in God, while others abandoned the land of their forefathers, leaving behind homes, church, and the bones of their beloved ancestors, and sought refuge in foreign lands. What wonder then that the remaining population loyal to its homeland, faith and king, lost their trust in the impotent imperial justice and placed its hope on foreign powers, especially when the sovereign himself was seeking protection from foreign powers at the Congress of Berlin.

We witnessed how certain Armenian individuals, intellectuals and high officials, disparaged the aspirations of their compatriots, saying that “The Armenian people should not separate its interests from those of the Ottoman Empire.” We should point out that it was not the Armenian people who by turning to Berlin distinguished and separated its interests from the Turkish state, but faulty and misguided policies, often detrimental to itself, that turned the government against its loyal and peaceable people who strove only to live in peace under the Empire’s flag, but instead were subjected to bitter oppression.

Now let us turn our attention to the missteps of the Ottoman state with respect to the Armenian people and what the Armenians can and must do, both those who live in their homeland and those in exile, but who share the kinship and the same Christian faith and who hearing of the sufferings and cries of their compatriots cannot remain indifferent to their plight.

For over a hundred years, the condition of the Armenian people in its homeland has been unbearable. History, mores, and even more eloquently, the ruins on all sides, are evidence of the extreme suffering of the Armenian people, who despite everything, placed their trust and hope in the promises of the Ottoman despots. In particular, during the last sixty years, with the reign of Sultan Mahmud, whom political leaders and historians consider to be the reformer of the Ottoman Empire, the Armenian people have not raised the slightest grievance, always hoping that the authorities and the Muslim clerical leaders were ready and able to make their voice and commands heard. Hence, when the imperial decrees speak of toleration, nondiscrimination on religious beliefs, equality before the law, fair trial, impartial election of government, objective policy on taxation, security for life and dignity the people never thought that the eloquent and well-justified decrees and the Constitution of Sultan Mahmud, Sultan Abdul-Mejidi, Sultan Murat, and Sultan Abdul Hamid the grandsons of magnificent Mehmets, Selims, Suleimans would remain a dead letter, never to be carried out. Therefore, the people lived with hope and never acted against the Ottoman Empire in word or deed.

However, while the people did not speak out and act and did not curtail their age-old loyalty, was it reasonable to trust the central power, which broke its promises, pardoned lynch mobs, and failed to protect its innocent and law-abiding subjects? This is true especially when it concerns a nation once powerful and mighty, but now in want of protection from the Christian nations, who have assembled in Berlin for a peace conference.

Moreover, since some crumbs from the tables of San Stefano and Berlin promised a shred of sustenance for the Armenians, the Empire found it necessary to subject the Armenians in Armenia and Cilicia to yet more severe sufferings and persecution. Was this miserable gesture really necessary? All it did was make things worse, provoking the dissipated empire. This is the incomprehensible question for me and the Armenian people.

If this young Turkey believes that it is serving its country’s interest and thinks like [Grand Vizier] Kiamil Pasha who advises the Sublime Porte that by exterminating a few Armenians in the Taurus mountains it can bring Turkey back to life and that the Armenians pose a threat to Turkey, then it is grossly mistaken. On the contrary, if instead of implementing real, domestic reforms, the Ottoman Empire lays waste to its provinces, it will not gain might or power, but rather the provinces constituting this vast empire will fall away like leaves one after another.

The real threat to the state is the economic situation. And those who do not see this are blind. Instead they foolishly search for or conjure up threats that do not exist. After so many years of empty promises of reform, things are going from bad to worse. That is the real threat.

It is a proven truth both for individuals and states that there is only one path to salvation – to be straight and plain. Machiavellian politics based on violence, deceit, lies and fraud is incapable of creating anything.

Scions of Machiavelli’s homeland, Cavour and Victor Emanuel, created united Italy that was long considered an impossible dream, not through Machiavellian policy but through plain truth and courage. After the Battles of Solferino and St. Martino, the Austrian Empire, learned its lesson, and forestalled its own disintegration not by centralization or promulgating a half-baked constitution, but through forthright action. Austria too was confronted with diverse interests and a multiethnic, diverse, multilingual and multi-religious society, but adopted a policy of reconciling competing interests, rapprochement of peoples, coexistence of languages and tolerating religious differences.

Austria did not even balk at changing its name to Austria-Hungary. In this way, in place of the Italy it lost, Austria expanded into Bosnia and may go even further.

Perhaps the myopic, religious fanatics who are disciples or adherents of Kiamil Pasha are ruminating as follows:

     What did we gain out of Romania’s and Serbia’s independence or sovereignty? They trampled all the treaties; exerted all efforts to overcome subjection to the Sublime Porte. Not confronted with a formidable opposing force, they themselves turned into an enemy, and pointing their weak and pitiful weapons at the first opportunity at us, Our subjects allied themselves with our enemies, betrayed us and attacked us. Our big judge and critic – Europe not only stopped our triumphant use of force against these insurgents, but also treated with extreme partiality the barbarian rebels who killed and mutilated our prisoners, cutting off their noses and ears. If in the European part, we bred a snake in our bosom, we should not make the same stupid mistake in the Asian part of Turkey. If we have any sense, we will eliminate any element that may one day case a threat to us or give a pretext for foreign intervention or become a foreign tool.

     For now, at least for the time being, it is in Britain’s interest that the countries we hold in Asia Minor (we and Britain not only do not accept the name Armenia, but we should also crush the jaws uttering this name) be off limits for foreign interference or any pretext for such interference. Hence, for the sake of this sacred end and for the national interests we are required to exterminate any suspicious element, so that we ensure our future. Thus, we have to exterminate the Armenian people without trace. And in order to do this we don’t lack anything: Kurds, Circassians, governors, judges, tax collectors, policemen and everything else. All we have to do is proclaim a religious war, and it would be an easy war, against a people, which doesn’t have arms, military or a protector. Whereas we have arms, military and, as an ally and guarantor of our Asian realms, one of the greatest and wealthiest nations in the world. And once the Armenian people are wiped out completely, then Christian Europe will look in vain for a co-religionist in Turkish Asia, they will leave us alone, we can deal with our internal affairs and reforms. What do we lack, land? The Asian part of our country is four times the size of France; we have all kinds of wealth, all kinds of climates, all kinds of agricultural products, brave, warlike and self- disciplined peoples before whom all the world shuddered once; we have communications, a central government armed with a physical and spiritual axe. In this way, we can raise our voice, revive our old splendor, set our financial house in order, clean up our judiciary, develop crafts and science, and teach Europe instead of being taught by it.

This is the dream of the learned men and scholars of young Turkey. However, they do not comprehend, that the Christian population has never been an obstacle to these reforms – neither those who are now free from the Turkish yoke, nor those who suffer under it. The Christian population merely hope for reforms and to avoid being exterminated. Kiamil Pasha and his circle need to understand that they are barking up the wrong tree.

None of the countries, nor nations or even minor people: Greeks, Romanians, Montenegrins received no favors from the ruling nation. Whatever they have gained now is due to their strenuous and desperate labors and the support of their coreligionist states. While in all of their relations with the Sublime Porte all they have received is resistance, insults and contempt. Yet, instead of nursing a grudge, they have sought at every turn to create opportunities to improve their lot. And Europe, the arbiter in these grand affairs in the interests of justice has assumed the responsibility to protect them from unconscionable vengeance and the threat of annihilation by lightening their yoke and eventually to shake off that yoke entirely.

The Kiamil Pasha and his circle plan on wiping out the Armenian people and erasing their name – today, from the Taurus mountains, and tomorrow, from the shores of Lake Van and on the next day, from Mush plains. But the name Armenia has not been preserved by us alone. Even when we have neglected our geography, it has been preserved for centuries through the annals of history and geography books, and now our youth knows its geography, and the likes of Kiamil Pasha cannot change that.

Thus, it may turn out to be very hard to exterminate the unarmed Armenian people without trace, and tomorrow, in the future, it may be impossible, since the future does not belong to Genghises and Tamerlanes. Today, politicians may be yet found who despise the weak and oppressed, who are deaf to the cries of the people, and who trample the fallen, but they are not forever. Such politicians are ashamed of themselves and their policies and promise to make a final effort to do something, but it’s been more than a year and they have not spent the least effort to do anything.

With tempered faith in the future, we hope better days are in store for our people. Let us think through what can be done, what we are doing, and take action without delay. It is true that our resources are limited and that the needs of our nation is great, forsaken everywhere and left to fend for itself. Nevertheless, there are others whose plight is more desperate, persecuted and scattered outside their homeland. And today they work quietly to revive their nation. So let us also find and design a remedy for our plight. Let us help ourselves today and tomorrow God will help us and the hand of God will raise up protectors and eventually bring forth political leaders and wise, farsighted statesmen who will take responsibility for Armenia.